The Great Resignation

“Citing Labor Department and other data, Barclays said the decline in labor force participation is being fed almost exclusively by married people living with a spouse who left the labor force in the late summer of 2020 and did not return.” — CNBC

A Covid plan

Focus on the vulnerable to Covid. The ICU hospitalization numbers and deaths could be dramatically reduced immediately with that approach alone.
Policy has NEVER been zero cases of anything at any cost.

The Media, Biden, Trump, scientists, experts, politicians … could and should keep repeating this basic strategy.

A tiny fraction of a fraction on US soil and world-wide are vulnerable to a bad outcome from the “global pandemic”.  The facts, the evidence, the science shows the elderly with co-morbidities are overwhelmingly the most at risk for needing the ICU or worse.

A huge number though of young and healthy all over the world have and will be harmed or worse from the broad lock down, shut down approach.

A study of 50,000 college students that tested positive for Covid:  Two hospitalizations.  No deaths. Most didn’t know they even had it, no symptoms, not even sick. But major university systems are closed as a result?

“The death rate [with Covid] in a given country depends a lot on the age structure, who are the people infected, and how they are managed.”
For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%.”

Ioannidis [Stanford University]

It has always been true that the young and healthy could catch, suffer from, and transmit any pathogen to someone potentially vulnerable. Thankfully for children, school and college age students, serious Covid risk is almost nil.

Reach out with information, guidelines, resources, money.  Laser focus on the vulnerable.

To date, about half of the 200,000+ fatalities attributed to Covid are in nursing homes, senior living, and assisted living.  Most everyone agrees those facilities were badly mismanaged and the death rate should have been much lower.

Outside of senior care, the main problem is congregate, multi-generational living.  Again reach out, publish information, and allocate funds for support if needed for this group.

Covid and the positivity rate

If people that played soccer today were tested for a sprained ankle, the positivity rate for sprained ankle would be high and certainly higher than a truly random sample of the overall population.

People being tested for Covid now are overwhelming those that experience symptoms or have a good reason to believe they were exposed.  Therefore the positivity rate will be skewed higher.  So, more testing obviously means more cases will be found, and with biased testing, the positivity rate will be much higher.

Some population groups are tested entirely or truly randomly and they show a much lower positivity rate.

Lastly, many more people of all age and health spectrums that contract the common cold bug for which there is no vaccine get really sick and miserable.  Lost work and school days, etc.  Many if all age and health condition groups never know they even caught the Covid bug.

Policy has NEVER been zero cases of anything at any cost.

The strategy that has been debated for months should be to focus resources on the truly vulnerable to a bad outcome from Covid.

Those that are vulnerable to any pathogen should take steps to protect themselves and friends and family should assist to that end.

At this point in the history of covid, stats are meaningless without context.
New cases, new hospitalizations, deaths attributed to covid?
Who are they, where are they, why are they?

Covid and Bio Ethics

Lose a 5 year old to the flu (for example) and society has <b>LOST 95 years </b>of life expectancy. Not to mention the emotional grief for everyone, not just relatives and friends.

A devastating loss.

If an 80 year old that made it that far thanks to the US medical system succumbs to anything, society <b>GAINED 8 years</b> of life expectancy (80 minus 72). A win!  And most everyone says he/she led a good life, maybe a great life. Had a chance to marry, attend college, see their kids graduate from college.

Public Health, Bio Ethics 101

How many children would have been saved from flu viruses with a mask mandate over the past 50 years?

Covid and schools

A reader forwarded the following summary:

Schools [Germany] have been partially reopened for young children and those taking exams – and the 16 states are moving towards reopening pre-school centres and schools at their own pace” –BBC

“Schools [Italy] will reopen 1 September” – BBC

“All schools [France] except high schools fully reopened on 22 June. Schools for 15 to 18-year-olds (lycées) began reopening in green zones as part of phase two.” – BBC

Day care centres and primary schools [Denmark] returned on 14 April, with children attending in shifts. Children aged 12-16 returned from 18 May.” – BBC

Schools [Belgium] resumed classes from 18 May” – BBC

Secondary school [Netherlands] pupils returned to class on 2 June. Social distancing requirements for all school students ended on 1 July” – BBC

“Final-year school [Austria] pupils returned to classes at the start of May” – BBC

Schools [Spain] were partially reopened from 26 May. This will allow for revision classes and state exams and a full reopening is expected in September” – BBC

Spain ?????

Schools [Ireland] will remain shut until September, while outdoor workers such as construction workers and gardeners resumed activities from 18 May” – BBC

Schools [Switzerland], libraries, museums and non-food shops followed [opened] on 11 May” – BBC

Infants and some secondary school students [Portugal] also went back on 18 May, while primary schools and pre-schools began reopening at the start of June” – BBC

The virus knew to skip Portugal?

Schools [Greece] reopened on 11 May for final-year students” – BBC

Primary schools [Poland] reopened on 25 May, but only for the youngest children, and final-year university students were also allowed back to class” – BBC

Restaurantsbarsschools [Sweden] and businesses remained opened.” — BBC